General market news
- Rates moved higher last week. The 10-year Treasury yield went from 2.87 percent to more than 3 percent this morning. The 3-year bond is now yielding what the 10-year was last week, and the 2-year is yielding what the 10-year was two weeks ago. As rates continue to compress and push up closer to a ceiling, the bond market seems to be telling us that while the economy looks good, there are factors indicating a recession in the future. The Federal Reserve (Fed) seems committed to raising rates. Keep in mind, however, that the Fed uses its “language” as a policy tool as well.
- All three major U.S. indices, the Russell 2000, and both the MSCI EAFE and MSCI Emerging Markets indices were up last week. Both improvement in fundamentals and the expectation of resumed trade talks between the U.S. and China were also in the news. The Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday that Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin had reached out to continue trade talks with China. This was confirmed by the Chinese Foreign Ministry, which had reportedly welcomed the offer. Further, the Turkish Central Bank surprised last week when it increased the one-week repo rate by 625 basis points. This move followed the country’s continued currency weakness after the U.S. doubled its tariffs of Turkish steel and aluminum last month.
- Despite both Goldman Sachs and Stifel raising concerns over a potential peak in the memory chip cycle, the S&P 500’s technology sector posted a 1.83-percent gain. This move was supported both by Qualcomm announcing $16 billion of its common stock as the first phase of its $30 billion buyback plan and by a 1.2-percent move in Apple following the release of three new iPhones and a new version of the Apple watch.
- Economic news regarding inflation and consumer spending was released last week. On Wednesday, the Producer Price Index declined by more than expected, leaving annual inflation for producers at 2.8 percent. On Thursday, the Consumer Price Index showed a similar decline, with annual inflation of 2.7 percent.
- On Friday, August retail sales came in lower than expected at 0.2-percent growth month-over-month. July’s figure was revised upward, however, accounting for the lower-than-expected growth in August.